Media coverage around the world seems overwhelmed with the theory that something parallel to the ‘Ice Age’, though a lot less extreme in terms of the intensity of freezing temperatures has been unleashed upon us. Thus, some people are beginning to question the predictions and research-work that underlines global warming. It is a bit surprising to see that many people are ready to endorse this perspective of ‘global cooling’ so soon and have already started to acknowledge it primarily due to a couple of months of extreme winter conditions that prevailed in the early part of this year. In comparison, global warming patterns have been studied and proven across a decade of detailed, scientific studies. What further challenges the theory of ‘global cooling’ is that 2009 was still one of the warmest years that have ever been recorded in our planet’s history. It would be surprising if 2010 isn’t able to match the soaring temperatures that were recorded in 2009 and this is despite December 2009 and January 2010 ensuring that the year has had a remarkably cold beginning—in fact, 2010 has been forecasted to be one of the hottest years in our planet’s existence!Despite this, some scholars are trying to enforce the view that our planet is entering a ‘cooling stage’ and thus, all our global warming-based apprehensions are baseless. The following is a detailed account on why most people don’t seem convinced with the ‘global cooling’ theories.
The IPCC Admission Fiasco
As if the entire gamut of media speculation wasn’t enough, some more fuel has been added to this theory through the controversy surrounding the infamous ‘glacier melting miscalculation’. Please understand that the reported mistake that has been acknowledged by the International Panel on Climate Change merely points to acceptance of a calculative error wherein the timeline they had set for the Himalayan glaciers to melt beyond any chance of redemption was miscalculated by a few years. Despite this fact being clearly explained by IPCC representatives, a plethora of opinions have surfaced on the web and TV that have somehow connected this piece of information with their personal theory that global-warming trends are merely over-hyped apprehensions. What should be understood is that the IPCC (part of UN’s climate panel) never made any reference to global warming being a hoax or the threat of global warming being whimsical—so, the entire claim of our planet being in some transitory stage towards cooler temperatures doesn’t have a substantial support to it. Even when the entire European continent and much of the US was shivering under icy conditions, the weather bureau Down Under confirmed that the average temperature for the Central Pacific zone was at its maximum in 2009, since the El Niño-affected year of 1998. Thus, the extreme winter conditions that were widely telecasted weren’t a global phenomenon.
Just consider this—we are witnessing the Earth’s hottest decade (2000-2010) and the 13 hottest years have been recoded during the last 15 years. 2005 has been recognized as the hottest year ever recorded, i.e. through dependable climatic study forums like the NASA. Such data is more indicative of global warming rather than global cooling.
Understanding why ‘global cooling’ just doesn’t seem right!
The second recorded, most-warm year is 1998—a year that also saw the phenomenon of El Niño making a statement. It has been since verified and repeatedly concluded by various scientific communities that the El Nino was largely responsible for the abnormally higher temperatures that affected the tropical nations in the Pacific region. Those who aren’t familiar with El Niño can understand it as a rare natural event wherein the heat that should be retained by the ocean waters is brought to the water’s surface and hence, it tends to spread towards the nearby landmasses.
This rise in oceanic temperatures had climatologists literally confused for a long time before the climatic effects induced by El Niño were fully understood. However, the El Niño hasn’t been able to sustain its heating effect with the same intensity that it did in 1998—underlining the fact that such natural occurrences cannot always be forecasted. Further, they can cause some drastic, climatic aberrations in a given year. However, such occasional occurrences shouldn’t be piggybacked to ignore an issue that stands before us in its most challenging and hazardous form, i.e. the global warming trends.
While the extremely cold temperatures recorded in 2009 cannot be ignored, 2009 is a part of our planet’s hottest decades. Even if the extremely cold weather conditions hammering US, China and European nations are considered, the average temperature readings are much higher if global climate readings are analyzed. The extreme winters we are witnessing are nothing but short-term, climatic fluctuations that are often precipitated by lesser-known events. For example, abrupt changes in seismic activities like volcanic eruptions can cause moderate cooling.
A similar thing happened in the Philippines in 1990-91 when Mt. Pinatubo induced a considerable temperature drop in the surrounding landscapes. Such sudden temperature changes can be caused by a host of processes that a play an integral part in balancing our bionetwork. Even in the near future, largely unknown forces like the Pacific Decadal and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could cause a drop in ocean temperatures. This might cause an overall cooling affect on the sea water and the surrounding coastal areas but the average, global temperature for such regions will still rise owing to global warming trends.
These temporary-but-extreme weather variations will continue to surface from time-to-time but the rise in global surface and water temperatures is a constant progression towards gradual ecological degradation. What should really worry the naysayer to global warming is the high probability of a full-strength El Niño that could scorch 2010 beyond any contemporary calculation. People making immediate conclusions should also consider a realistic situation wherein 2010 can turn out to be the hottest-ever year! Will something like this be interpreted as a sudden, global ‘meltdown’?
Are some of us vulnerable to accepting ‘global-cooling’ theories?
It is often seen that when a problem seems to have attained insurmountable proportions and seems ‘impossible’ to resolve, the slightest suggestion that the problem actually never existed is hard-to-ignore for the human psyche. There is perhaps something in the human psyche that looks for improbable solutions when the current situations seem daunting. Some psychologists refer to this as an ‘escape mechanism’ that is deep-rooted among most of us.
Something similar can be stated about the current climate change crisis wherein the failure of international forums like the Copenhagen Meet 2009 ensured that many believers hoping for effective measures to make greener existence a reality suffered a disappointment. Further, it is being increasingly realized that the graduation towards greener lifestyles and more critically, towards greener industrialization is currently, progressing rather slowly.
It may seem like a farfetched assumption but there is a high probability that in this sudden surge of skepticism, the theory of ‘global warming’ being neutralized by an unproven theory (of ‘global cooling’) has infused a pleasing-but-false belief.
The fact is that if global warming trends aren’t arrested immediately, surface and ocean temperatures can rise by nearly 6°C before the end of the 21st century, causing unprecedented warming and provoking unstoppable natural calamities—and this is bound to happen irrespective of the current, sporadic climatic events being witnessed.
Resources
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/01/20/glacier.himalayas.ipcc.error/index.html
http://climateprogress.org/2010/01/14/2009-hottest-year-on-record-in-southern-hemisphere-nasa-giss/
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/12/00s-hottest-decade-or-record.php
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/01/record-highs-beat-record-lows-united-states-2-to-1.php
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/03sep_sunspots.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mojib_Latif
http://climateprogress.org/2010/01/14/science-dr-mojib-latif-global-warming-cooling/
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/12/00s-hottest-decade-or-record.php
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